Lockdowns and economic scarring

23 MAY,2021 | MEDC


The economic scars left by the second waveof Covid are likely to outlive the lockdowns, and managing them effectively is key to India’s chances of attaining pre-pandemic output levels. The silver lining is that in the second wave most of the worst-hit states seem to be nearing a peak in their infection curves within a month after cases started surging in late March. Contrastingly, the first wave peaked almost six months after it began. Even though the second wave has many peculiarities of its own, we now have the benefit of hindsight in dealing with it. While lockdowns will affect economic output this quarter, the final GDP figure may still look impressive due to a low-base effect. We need to acknowledge this. The rural spread of the second wave will also need to be considered. Reviving consumption may be the biggest socioeconomic challenge, because that depends on restoring confidence in the system, and RBI surveys indicate this has recently been taking some hard knocks. 

*Photo Credit: Google

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