The recent decline in global commodity prices does not mean food inflation in India will automatically moderate. Wheat registered high inflation at 10.1% in June due to lower procurement and production amid heat waves in North India. The imposition of sudden and outright export bans may not work in taming food inflation. Some root causes have to be addressed including imposing an export tax to recover part of the massive subsidies that the government gives to wheat and rice cultivators in states like Punjab and Haryana. India is not insulated from global economic uncertainties, compounded by the Ukrainian crisis. However, there is reason for hope if India uses its trade policy wisely and in a calibrated manner. Containing food inflation calls for a strategic mix of liberal trade policy along with investment in agricultural and rural productivity
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