Complex recovery curves

06 SEP,2020 | MEDC


 

With the world’s fastest growing economy probably becoming its fastest shrinking one, there is a need to reflect on the direction of the inevitable recovery process. What we are facing is an abnormal situation, and the recovery curve is not likely to be either the standard U, V or W shape, but of a far more complex nature, depending on the priorities of the political economy. The socioeconomic forces causing growth hiccups and rising inequality were already present before Covid-19 … the pandemic has simply accentuated them. Covid has also exposed the lacunae in both the public and private sectors, who (with a few honourable exceptions) have neither the competence nor the capacity to handle the increasing complications facing society. Typically, the political and economic interests in such a situation do not coincide, and it is up to a mature government to know where to draw the dividing line. Until that becomes clearer, it is difficult to say what sort of a shape the recovery curve could take.

*Photo Credit: Google

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