23 APR,2019 | MEDC
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a near-normal monsoon, expecting rainfall in the country to be 96% of the long period average (LPA), with a model error of plus or minus 5%.
Thus, in the worst-case scenario, the country would have monsoon rains at 91% of the LPA. Hence, a drought situation seems remote this year. However, the distribution of the rains remains to be seen – it is quite possible that some parts of the country could experience floods even as others face water scarcity. Given that the monsoon continues to remain the main source of water for 55% of India’s arable land, there is no room for complacency.
Climate change compounds the issue. Slowly but surely, the Indian summer is getting hotter and the winter is getting colder. Extreme weather incidents such as cloudbursts and flash floods are becoming more common today compared to the past. India is predicted to be particularly hard hit by global warming, and we now need to maximize every normal monsoon we are fortunate to receive. The monsoon is not just the key climatic or agricultural event in India … it is the key socioeconomic event shaping the future of sustainable development. Its repercussions extend far beyond agriculture, affecting politics and decision making at all levels.
*Photo Credit: Google